Chris Whalen’s Random Life

I find it interesting the conspiracy theories revolving around the trade of Matt Cassell to the Chiefs. The general thought that the Patriots gave the Chiefs a sweetheart deal etc. There are a few problems with this.

1) Timing – By all accounts the Patriots were not offered a first round pick until Saturday. Once could assume that if they had not agreed to the deal Friday, which they did, they could have gotten more. It all came down to timing.

2) More on timing – the reality is the Patriots were right up against the salary cap and needed to make room to sign Fred Taylor, Chris Baxter, James Sanders, Russ Hochstein etc. never mind the upcoming free agency of Vince Wilfork which they have to sign quickly. It now looks like they would have cut Vrabel to save money this week anyway against the cap. He was due another $1Million signing bonus this week. by trading him they actually not only save an additional $1Million-ish instead of cutting him, Vrabel also gets the full value of his contract this year and does not have to restructure/resign with someone. The deal for Cassell/Vrabel had to happen quickly to open up space and the Patriots took the best deal available in the time they had. One has to imagine that Pioli KNEW Vrabel was probably going to be cut as well, and this removed the variable of Vrabel signing somewhere else.

3) Known v. Unknown – The Patriots had this deal in hand in short order. What was the risk of waiting to see if a three way deal with Denver or another team would have materialized in the timing that they needed. THe chances were less likely that a three way deal of any sort could have been consummated in a short time frame, they always tend to drag out, rather than the quick, clean deal they had in hand.

I think you have to look at this deal as Vrabel for salary cap relief and really Cassell for the 34th pick. That really is the way it worked out. The Patriots traditionally covet the second round picks (and 3rds) because of the combination of cost and probability of success are better than a high first round pick.

So now the Patriots have three second round picks this year and their first round (#23). That will make for an interesting draft. I expect them to go after defense (secondary and linebacker) ans well as an interior offensive lineman. All of these areas are supposedly pretty deep in this draft. They can almost remake their team with 4 picks like this.

I would not read anything into these Julius Peppers rumors, he just wants too much money and the Patriots do not have the cap space. Some of the rumors around Ray Lewis are more likely but the Pats still do’t have the cap space to sign him for a big deal. Keep an eye on Jason Taylor however, as well as any of the veteran corners soon to be cut….