Filed under: 1 | Tags: Cold Hard Football Facts, difference between starting QB and backup, Matt Cassell, nfl, Patriots, Pro Football Reference, QB, Tom Brady
Well, quite a week one. I wanted to take the opportunity to take a look at the effect a QB, or more importantly a backup QB have on a game. AN average NFL quarterback completes about 50% of his passes, a top flight QB about 60%. So what does that really mean? Well depending on what offense a team plays and how many times that QB throws (I think the NFL average is 25 attempts per game) the difference is surpisingly small. Depending on whether your are the Steelers, throwing 20 times, or the Colts, throwing 35+ times, the difference between 50% and 60% is between 3-6 completions a game. That’s it. That and the TD to intertception ratio is what drives QB ratings. That really doesn’t tell the whole story. What you really want to know is what situations were the passes thrown in. What is the 3rd down success rate? What is the average gain on first down? And most improtantly, Yards per Attempt. A good view to where a QB is throwing the ball. Obviously a lower number means throwing more passes for less yardage. Short dump passes etc. Something in that 5-7 yard range speaks of a short passing ball control team. Anything north of 9 yards points to a vertical passing attack.
Tom Brady had a very high yards to attempt last year. Look this weekend for Matt Cassell to have a much lower yards per attempt this Sunday as a more ball control passing attack. More reminicient of the Patriots in ‘06 instead of ‘07. Higher completion percentage, but much shorter passes.
The guys over at Cold Hard Football Facts and Pro Football Reference (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=581) did a great job figuring out what the backup QB effect is. THe blog I listed is where they did the math. In a nutshell the average difference in a given start between the backup and the starter is a drop off of about 2.3 points. Probably a bit mroe in the case of the Patriots, but I still bet not more than 5-7. What does that translate to? According to these guys the backup would win one less game per year. Adjusting for the high power of the Patriots offense, combined with the easy schedule they have this year I would think translates into more like 2 wins per year less for Cassell. This will be very interesting to watch, honestly I had no idea the mathematical difference between the backup and the starter were so small. What do you guys think?
Filed under: 1 | Tags: matt cassel, NFL pension plan, sports pension plans
With the recent Patriots cuts to players like Matt Cassell, I have been asked a ton of times about the NFL pension plan again. Not many people know about it or how poor it actually is. My father played 8 years back in the 60s and 70s and gets a few hundred dollars a month, and he was an All Pro. While the NFL contributes $2 for every $1 the player contributes to the league 401K. There are issues of how it compares to other leagues etc. Bottom line is if you think an NFL player is set for life by playing, you are sorely mistaken. You to play 3 seasons to be eligible to begin with, which is far less than the average career. While there are new provisions for health care etc. the league has traditionally only accepted about 2% of applications for disability, a stat far below any other industry…
The best and most succinct synopsis of the plan I found at http://savannahnow.com/node/146538
An excerpt below…
“The NFL’s Post-Career Financial Plan
The NFL Players Association retirement plan package includes four plans:
1. Severance Pay Plan: A player with two credited NFL seasons (on the active roster, injured reserved or physically unable to perform list for three games in each of two seasons), receives $10,000 for every year played between 1993 and 1999 and $12,500 for every year from 2000 on.
2. Player Annuity Program: A player with four credited NFL seasons receives an annuity valued at $65,000 at age 35 or five years after his last credited season, whichever is later.
3. Second-Career Savings Plan or 401(K): A player with two credited seasons will receive a $2 match for every $1 contributed to the plan up to a maximum club contribution of $20,000 per year.
4. Bert Bell/Pete Rozelle Retirement Plan (pension): A player with at least three credited seasons earns a benefit credit for every season he plays. The benefit credits add up to monthly pension checks that player receive starting at age 55.
** Of note: The NFL pension plan has been widely criticized, especially when viewed in comparison to pension plans in other pro sports leagues. For example, the a 10-year NFL veteran who retired in 1998 would receive $51,000 a year beginning at age 55. A retired Major League Baseball player with 10 years experience, by comparison, would be eligible for an $175,000 annual pension starting at age 62.”
Bottom line is that this probably isn’t even as much as social security would provide….only the big name multi million dollar players are set, everyone else just has to treat this as a well paying 3 year job and then take a significant pay cut to go to the next job…
