Chris Whalen’s Random Life

The Patriots, whether you love them or hate them, are on the verge of a historic season. The 4th Superbowl appearance in 7 years, they have been very consistent. Part of that consistency has been the ability to keep the core of the team intact, while picking up free agents or trade for lesser known players that fit their system. One thing thing we should look at is if the Patriots are fortunate enough to win, how will their team change? There are several key players going into free agency and several very key verterans that may consider going 19-0 a perfect way to pull an Elway- retire while on top.

Let’s assume the 2008 salary cap number will be about $116 Million. Generally accepted that it will be in that range. Let’s take a look at players that will be free agents and how much of cap room they could free up…

Asante Samuel – Cap hit for 2007 $7.8 million

Rosevelt Colvin – $4.5 million

Randy Moss – $2.5 (assuming the Patriots do not pick up the option)

Jabbar Gaffney – $595k

Troy Brown – $820k

Eugene Wilson – $2.1 million

Now that is a total of about $17.5 million of cap space freed up. However, that also means losing your top WR, one of your top LBs, and your top DB just for starters. All of which are going to be expensive to replace. If the Patriots were to try to keep Samuel and Moss, that in and of itself would probably require more than the cap room this makes available. The question is will they sign and for how much?

The more interesting list is the veteran players under contract for next year that may very well decide to retire at the end of a perfect season. These players could leave huge holes in the Patriots on both offense and defense. Now let’s just look theortically at who could possibly retire…

Kevin Faulk – 2007 Cap charge $1.9 million

Tedy Bruschi – $1.7 million

Rodney Harrison – $1.5 million

Junior Seau – $1 million

Now the challenge here is that these are part of the core of the Patriots. The team jsut would not be the same without Bruschi, Faulk, Harrison, and Seau has played very well in his two years. The possible retirement of these players only frees up about $6.1 million in cap space. That is not nearly enough space to replace all those players and starters at those positions. Not to mention dramatically changing the makeup of the team.

In theory, the Patriots could be around $23.4 million below the 2007 salary cap number. Now if the salary cap really goes up to $116 million, that means the Patriots could be around $32.4 million under the 2008 salary cap (not including any accelerators on signing bonuses etc. which I could not find data on). However, it could mean replace 4 of your top 4 receivers, 3 of your 5 top linebackers, your starting corner and strong safety, and an absolute TON of leadership. With a roster this deep, young players (except James Sanders at safety for one), really have not had the chance to get allot of experience. Will the Patriots be starting Sanders and soon to be second year man Brandon Meriweather at safety? Randall Gay back at corner? Pierre Woods and Oscar Lua at linebacker? This could mean Kelly Washington back at WR as the deep threat to go with Welker, assuming the Patriots do not want to pick up the option to pay Stallworth $9 million next year. And who would be the new thrid down back?

19-0 would be historic but could also help to transform the Patriots into a middle of the pack team next year. Perhaps one on the bubble for making the playoffs. It will be very interesting to see who of this group they bring back and how the draft is handled this year. 19-0 may be a good time for a few executives to exit as well rather than deal with rebuilding.

Which players come back or are brought back will be the stories to follow in the next few months. Regardless, the Patriots could look dramtically different in February.