Filed under: 1 | Tags: 2012 Olympics, London, nfl, nfl draft, Pro Bowl, Superbowl
Ok, now i have been hearing reports about the Superbowl possibly going to London in 2017. My personal opinion aside as to why this is a bad idea, let’s break it down a bit.
The Superbowl, first and foremost, is generally an economic bonanza for the host city. Unlike an Olympics, which are often marginally profitable if not lose money, the Superbowl leads to a very concentrated one week economic boom, usually close to $1B for the local economy. Fresh off their 2012 Olympic bid win, London probably feels they will have the venue and infrastructure set up for a Superbowl because they will have already done massive (and long overdue) improvements for the Olympics. From a pure financial standpoint, London can probably give a far larger monetary guarantee to the NFL than most US cities mainly because of the size and scale of London and the unique one-time event it will be. I have to say in my last few trips there, especially around the NFL annual game there, many Londoners can be seen wearing NFL garb, they genuinely do enjoy the game (as much as they understand it) and London and Berlin are probably the cities outside the US that enjoy the US version of football beyond anyone else. Although the Chinese do LOVE the highlight reels and have described it to me as a human cartoon or real life superheroes.
On the other side, very few US citizens will make the trip as opposed to putting it in a US city. Also, you are effectively removing a large annual economic event from the US economy. And then there is the branding issue. Most people I talked to have no interest in sharing this event internationally. Why put it in a city where there is not the established fan base to really even make it the success it traditionally is domestically? Things could change but for now that really doesn’t make sense to me. Adding the Pro Bowl to the open week before the Superbowl does, maybe as a two week event this makes a little more sense, but not really.
This does not even address security concerns. WHile London would have dealt with those for the 2012 Games, the real challenge is the concentrated travel patterns from the US to the UK, far easier to predict and plan an event around. Just a concentrated route…..
I just don’t want us to sell off one of our most unique and most American events somewhere else that does not have the NFL infrastructure or interest. And let’s face it, because the NFL is not an Olympic sport, most foreign countries will not subsidize or try to create American football leagues. They just focus on national Olympic interests.
Overall, moving the draft somewhere might be much more effective. Perhaps in the city with the #1 pick to really take advantage of the already heightened draft interest there?
Filed under: 1 | Tags: 2012 Olympics, London, nfl, nfl draft, Pro Bowl, Superbowl
Ok, now i have been hearing reports about the Superbowl possibly going to London in 2017. My personal opinion aside as to why this is a bad idea, let’s break it down a bit.
The Superbowl, first and foremost, is generally an economic bonanza for the host city. Unlike an Olympics, which are often marginally profitable if not lose money, the Superbowl leads to a very concentrated one week economic boom, usually close to $1B for the local economy. Fresh off their 2012 Olympic bid win, London probably feels they will have the venue and infrastructure set up for a Superbowl because they will have already done massive (and long overdue) improvements for the Olympics. From a pure financial standpoint, London can probably give a far larger monetary guarantee to the NFL than most US cities mainly because of the size and scale of London and the unique one-time event it will be. I have to say in my last few trips there, especially around the NFL annual game there, many Londoners can be seen wearing NFL garb, they genuinely do enjoy the game (as much as they understand it) and London and Berlin are probably the cities outside the US that enjoy the US version of football beyond anyone else. Although the Chinese do LOVE the highlight reels and have described it to me as a human cartoon or real life superheroes.
On the other side, very few US citizens will make the trip as opposed to putting it in a US city. Also, you are effectively removing a large annual economic event from the US economy. And then there is the branding issue. Most people I talked to have no interest in sharing this event internationally. Why put it in a city where there is not the established fan base to really even make it the success it traditionally is domestically? Things could change but for now that really doesn’t make sense to me. Adding the Pro Bowl to the open week before the Superbowl does, maybe as a two week event this makes a little more sense, but not really.
This does not even address security concerns. WHile London would have dealt with those for the 2012 Games, the real challenge is the concentrated travel patterns from the US to the UK, far easier to predict and plan an event around. Just a concentrated route…..
Overall, moving the draft somewhere might be much more effective. Perhaps in the city with the #1 pick to really take advantage of the already heightened draft interest there?
Filed under: 1
With the 2009 draft approaching, I have been receiving allot of questions regarding how do you value picks in order to trade them? Is there an underlying system? The reality is that there are a variety of point systems each team uses in order to value picks. Bascially you have to match the point total of the pick you want with the combined point total of hte picks you are looking to trade. Picks next year are discounted around 10%, but I have shown here a basic draft pick value chart that some teams use that will give you guys a good idea what is going on.
For example, the #1 overall pick in this draft is worth 3,000 points. If you want to trade with the Lions to get that pick this year, you need to package a collection of picks that equals around 3,000 points. Hope this helps as the fund begins Saturday!
NFL Draft Value Chart
nfl-draft-value-chart1
Filed under: 1 | Tags: BOddin, Dallas Cowboys, Fred Taylor, free agency, Joey Galloway, Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots, nfl, NFLPA, Pittsburgh Steelers, san francisco 49ers, shawn springs, tedy bruschi
Right now I think you are seeing two separate teams enter phase 2. Phase 2 is where teams that have been good for a while, and won multiple championships move into. The 49ers of the 80s did it, the Cowboys of the 90s did it, and now it looks like the Patriots and the Steelers are moving into it. Although based on their signings probably more the Patriots right now.
Teams that have put together a core group of players through the draft or a combination of draft and signing players other teams did not want and have been able to win mulitple championships inevitably get to the point where that core group starts to age or break down and need to be replaced or have diminised roles. Case in point the 49ers who phased out Joe Montana for Steve Young and replaced a littany of linebackers and defensive backs with players, like Deion Sanders, who came to that team specifically to win a championship. Dallas did the same in the 1990s. Those players come in for one or two year deals to finish their career winning. Those new players look for their best shot to win and look at teams that have won multiple times and just need to reload. Right now the only two teams that qualify are the Steelers and the Patriots. The Patriots have been more active so let’s use them as an example…
The Patriots core players are aging, Vrabel, Bruschi, among others need to be phased out. The defensive backfield needed to be rebuilt. There were holes that needed to be filled. Typically a team would look to draft or develop players to fill these holes. But if you have won multiple times, while you are developing players, proven veterans will be willing to come to your team for the shot to win on a short term basis. Right now look at the signings of Shawn Springs, Joey Galloway, Bodden, Fred Taylor to name a few. Players that don’t have upside, but a proven veterans that on any given day could still perform at a very high level. The idea of Phase 2 in this instance is you have won 3 Superbowls, and that core group can not win another. You can bring in these veterans to try to win one or two more while developing the younger players that will be the new core. Now while it is rare that Phase 3 ever happens, where those developing players become the new core, Phase two worked very nicely for teams such as the 49ers and Cowboys and may prove to work just as well for the Patriots and Steelers. They are really the only two teams positioned this way where quality veterans will take less money to go there to win. I think this means the next 2-3 years the AFC title games will most likely be played between these two teams and could just be a great battle in the short term. Pittsburgh is more focused on developing you players right now so they could be better positioned more in the 2-5 year span while the Patriots are veteran focused currently and may have really increased their chances for the next 2+ years.
Phase 2 is always interesting to watch and we will see if this can bring Brady and Co. another championship or two before they really need to start developing allot of young players. With free agency of their top defensive lineman coming up, and the looming NFLPA mess, the next 2 year window may be all the Patriots are looking for right now…..
Filed under: 1 | Tags: nfl, New England Patriots, Matt Cassell, Mike Vrabel, Kansas City Chiefs, Ray Lewis, Julius Peppers, Fred Taylor, Jason Taylor, nfl salary cap, nfl draft, Chris Baker, James Sanders, Russ Hochstein
I find it interesting the conspiracy theories revolving around the trade of Matt Cassell to the Chiefs. The general thought that the Patriots gave the Chiefs a sweetheart deal etc. There are a few problems with this.
1) Timing – By all accounts the Patriots were not offered a first round pick until Saturday. Once could assume that if they had not agreed to the deal Friday, which they did, they could have gotten more. It all came down to timing.
2) More on timing – the reality is the Patriots were right up against the salary cap and needed to make room to sign Fred Taylor, Chris Baxter, James Sanders, Russ Hochstein etc. never mind the upcoming free agency of Vince Wilfork which they have to sign quickly. It now looks like they would have cut Vrabel to save money this week anyway against the cap. He was due another $1Million signing bonus this week. by trading him they actually not only save an additional $1Million-ish instead of cutting him, Vrabel also gets the full value of his contract this year and does not have to restructure/resign with someone. The deal for Cassell/Vrabel had to happen quickly to open up space and the Patriots took the best deal available in the time they had. One has to imagine that Pioli KNEW Vrabel was probably going to be cut as well, and this removed the variable of Vrabel signing somewhere else.
3) Known v. Unknown – The Patriots had this deal in hand in short order. What was the risk of waiting to see if a three way deal with Denver or another team would have materialized in the timing that they needed. THe chances were less likely that a three way deal of any sort could have been consummated in a short time frame, they always tend to drag out, rather than the quick, clean deal they had in hand.
I think you have to look at this deal as Vrabel for salary cap relief and really Cassell for the 34th pick. That really is the way it worked out. The Patriots traditionally covet the second round picks (and 3rds) because of the combination of cost and probability of success are better than a high first round pick.
So now the Patriots have three second round picks this year and their first round (#23). That will make for an interesting draft. I expect them to go after defense (secondary and linebacker) ans well as an interior offensive lineman. All of these areas are supposedly pretty deep in this draft. They can almost remake their team with 4 picks like this.
I would not read anything into these Julius Peppers rumors, he just wants too much money and the Patriots do not have the cap space. Some of the rumors around Ray Lewis are more likely but the Pats still do’t have the cap space to sign him for a big deal. Keep an eye on Jason Taylor however, as well as any of the veteran corners soon to be cut….
Filed under: 1 | Tags: Fred Taylor, free agency, Julius Peppers, Kansas City Chiefs, Laurence Maroney, Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots, nfl, Ray Lewis, Sammy Morris
A quick update. Mike Vrabel was just traded to the Chiefs. Just what does this mean? Given that Vrabel could certainly on and off the field to the Chiefs, but this has to be part of a larger move. This is reportedly for a draft pick and the LB class is VERY deep this year. One has to assume they really like one of their rookie LBs from last year that were injured as rookies, Crable and Ruud. Crable being sort of a poor man’s Vrabel. Does this mean the potential signing of Julius Peppers? Ray Lewis? A marquis corner trade? This could be very interesting to keep an eye on! I would look for them to actually, potentially, go after a trade for a marquis offensive lineman such as a right tackle. Stay tuned!!!!!
They also have signed Fred Taylor, which means the addition of an inside runner who is also a home run threat. Add him to Sammy Morris (and probably not Laurence Maroney), and this could be a much more dangerous running attack. Hence the possible addition of one or more top offensive lineman……this is getting fun!
Filed under: 1 | Tags: franchsie tag, Matt Cassell, New England Patriots, nfl
Ok, so I have been getting allot of questions regarding what the franchise tag is. Mainly around Matt Cassell, so here goes….
With the new s today that Matt Cassell will accept/sign the franchise tag from the Patriots, this is what it means. There are two type of franchsie tags, exclusive and non-exclusive. Exclusive means, that’s it, once the player signs it you own him for the year unless you trade him. THat means the value of the contract will be the average of the top 5 players at that players position, in Cassell’s case about $14.7 Million for one year. Generally teams that actually want to keep this player use the exclusive tag….
THe Patriots offered the non-exclusive tag. The salary number is the same but the main difference is that other teams can negotiate with the player and offer a better or longer term deal. If the player accepts it the new team owes the old team (Patriots) two first round draft picks as compensation. With the high value of picks in the NFL, the reality is this gives Cassell the opportunity to negotiate a new deal for himself and work our compensation/trade with the Patriots. The non-exclusive tag acts as the door opener and guarantees compensation for the Pats. The only caveat being that if no one tries to deal for Cassell, the Patriots will keep him at that salary number for one year. They do have the option if this happens to do the whole process all over again and franchise him again next year. THere is no limit on hte number of times a player can be franchised.
The end result is the Pats have hedged their bet. If they really wanted to make sure they kept Cassell they would have opted for the Exclusive tage, which they did not. This will be interesting to watch (rumors abound about teams interested such as the Lions, Vikings, Chiefs, Bucs, etc.)….
Filed under: 1 | Tags: Arizona Cardinals, Kurt Warner, Matt Cassell, Matt Leinart, nfl, Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf
So how would you like to be Matt Laeinart? You are picked very highly in the draft, handed a bottom of the barrel NFL franchise, get invited to all the right parties, even ditch your pregnant college girlfriend to enjoy the bright lights of the Phoenix party scene….
Now here we are in early 2009. You lost your starting QB job to what amounted at the time as a washed up journeyman. All he did was take the same team you could not lead to the Superbowl for the first time in the franchises history. Your old college backup that you beat in spring practice for the job started for the first time since high school and took the Patriots to an 11-5 record, is hitting the free agent market and if he is franchised is guaranteed at least the franchise tag of $14.7 Million next year. Most likely will get a great deal more than that in a sign and trade. Based on his numbers, he should be a very hotly chased QB by as many as 8 or as few as 3 NFL teams. Would anyone trade for Matt right now with his salary cap number?
Leinart was invisible Superbowl week, is widely being regarded as a bust, and if Warner returns, will be the most expensive backup in the league……AGAIN!
Let’s put this in perspective, RYAN LEAF has better career stats that Matt Leinart right now! Let that sink in a bit…..I think at this point we are in month one of Matt Leinart watch. The odds are at LEAST 70-30 that in the next few months Matt ends up iwth at least one DUI, and one other charge of some sort as he tried to deal with the humiliation. And rest assured, humiliation is exactly what someone with the ego of Leinart is feeling right now. He has gone from the next franchise QB to Rick Mirer is a few months…enjoy that signing bonus Matt, NFL contracts ONLY guarantee that part of the contract, and you aren’t getting another one, in fact you may get cut this year! Maybe Matt Cassell will hire you as a pool boy…
Filed under: 1 | Tags: Cold Hard Football Facts, difference between starting QB and backup, Matt Cassell, nfl, Patriots, Pro Football Reference, QB, Tom Brady
Well, quite a week one. I wanted to take the opportunity to take a look at the effect a QB, or more importantly a backup QB have on a game. AN average NFL quarterback completes about 50% of his passes, a top flight QB about 60%. So what does that really mean? Well depending on what offense a team plays and how many times that QB throws (I think the NFL average is 25 attempts per game) the difference is surpisingly small. Depending on whether your are the Steelers, throwing 20 times, or the Colts, throwing 35+ times, the difference between 50% and 60% is between 3-6 completions a game. That’s it. That and the TD to intertception ratio is what drives QB ratings. That really doesn’t tell the whole story. What you really want to know is what situations were the passes thrown in. What is the 3rd down success rate? What is the average gain on first down? And most improtantly, Yards per Attempt. A good view to where a QB is throwing the ball. Obviously a lower number means throwing more passes for less yardage. Short dump passes etc. Something in that 5-7 yard range speaks of a short passing ball control team. Anything north of 9 yards points to a vertical passing attack.
Tom Brady had a very high yards to attempt last year. Look this weekend for Matt Cassell to have a much lower yards per attempt this Sunday as a more ball control passing attack. More reminicient of the Patriots in ‘06 instead of ‘07. Higher completion percentage, but much shorter passes.
The guys over at Cold Hard Football Facts and Pro Football Reference (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=581) did a great job figuring out what the backup QB effect is. THe blog I listed is where they did the math. In a nutshell the average difference in a given start between the backup and the starter is a drop off of about 2.3 points. Probably a bit mroe in the case of the Patriots, but I still bet not more than 5-7. What does that translate to? According to these guys the backup would win one less game per year. Adjusting for the high power of the Patriots offense, combined with the easy schedule they have this year I would think translates into more like 2 wins per year less for Cassell. This will be very interesting to watch, honestly I had no idea the mathematical difference between the backup and the starter were so small. What do you guys think?
Filed under: 1 | Tags: matt cassel, NFL pension plan, sports pension plans
With the recent Patriots cuts to players like Matt Cassell, I have been asked a ton of times about the NFL pension plan again. Not many people know about it or how poor it actually is. My father played 8 years back in the 60s and 70s and gets a few hundred dollars a month, and he was an All Pro. While the NFL contributes $2 for every $1 the player contributes to the league 401K. There are issues of how it compares to other leagues etc. Bottom line is if you think an NFL player is set for life by playing, you are sorely mistaken. You to play 3 seasons to be eligible to begin with, which is far less than the average career. While there are new provisions for health care etc. the league has traditionally only accepted about 2% of applications for disability, a stat far below any other industry…
The best and most succinct synopsis of the plan I found at http://savannahnow.com/node/146538
An excerpt below…
“The NFL’s Post-Career Financial Plan
The NFL Players Association retirement plan package includes four plans:
1. Severance Pay Plan: A player with two credited NFL seasons (on the active roster, injured reserved or physically unable to perform list for three games in each of two seasons), receives $10,000 for every year played between 1993 and 1999 and $12,500 for every year from 2000 on.
2. Player Annuity Program: A player with four credited NFL seasons receives an annuity valued at $65,000 at age 35 or five years after his last credited season, whichever is later.
3. Second-Career Savings Plan or 401(K): A player with two credited seasons will receive a $2 match for every $1 contributed to the plan up to a maximum club contribution of $20,000 per year.
4. Bert Bell/Pete Rozelle Retirement Plan (pension): A player with at least three credited seasons earns a benefit credit for every season he plays. The benefit credits add up to monthly pension checks that player receive starting at age 55.
** Of note: The NFL pension plan has been widely criticized, especially when viewed in comparison to pension plans in other pro sports leagues. For example, the a 10-year NFL veteran who retired in 1998 would receive $51,000 a year beginning at age 55. A retired Major League Baseball player with 10 years experience, by comparison, would be eligible for an $175,000 annual pension starting at age 62.”
Bottom line is that this probably isn’t even as much as social security would provide….only the big name multi million dollar players are set, everyone else just has to treat this as a well paying 3 year job and then take a significant pay cut to go to the next job…
